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Hartlepool vs Port Vale — League Two 2018

Hartlepool
Hartlepool
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Port Vale
Port Vale
4/15/2022League TwoLeague Two · Round 42The Suit Direct Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Hartlepool33%
×Draw28%
Port Vale39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hartlepool
1.13
Port Vale
1.25

Port Vale creates 11% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 118 away

creates per match

Hartlepool
1.09
Port Vale
1.16

allows per match

Hartlepool
1.34
Port Vale
1.17

finishing

Hartlepool+0.00on par
Port Vale+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hartlepool ↓

Port Vale →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Hartlepool or draw
61%
Hartlepool or Port Vale
72%
Draw or Port Vale
67%

Winning margin

Hartlepool wins by 2+
13%
Port Vale wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Hartlepool 1+ goals
68%
Hartlepool 2+ goals
31%
Hartlepool 3+ goals
11%
Port Vale 1+ goals
71%
Port Vale 2+ goals
36%
Port Vale 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Hartlepool (draw refunded)
46%
Port Vale (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hartlepool at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.34 · 47 matches

Port Vale away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.17 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hartlepool attack 1.09 + Port Vale defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.13

Port Vale attack 1.16 + Hartlepool defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Hartlepool scores more
33%
level
28%
Port Vale scores more
39%

Port Vale at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Port Vale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Two: Hartlepool 0–1 Port Vale

Port Vale beat Hartlepool 1-0 in League Two on April 15, 2022.

The match was played at The Suit Direct Stadium in Hartlepool, County Durham.