Hartlepool 2–1 Oldham: Result & Stats | League #43

Hartlepool

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Oldham

A. Gomez Mancini 53'

L. Waterfall 39'

J. Lundstram 20'

1/1/2025

League #43 · Round 25The Prestige Group Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Hartlepool31%

×Draw24%

Oldham45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HartlepoolExpected goals in this matchOldham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.67

Hartlepool

1.35

Oldham

1.67

Oldham creates 24% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 13 away

1.40

creates per match

1.54

1.80

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Hartlepool

1.40

Oldham

1.54

allows per match

Hartlepool

1.80

Oldham

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hartlepool+0.00on par

Oldham+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hartlepool ↓

Oldham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Hartlepool or draw

55%

Hartlepool or Oldham

76%

Draw or Oldham

69%

Winning margin

Hartlepool wins by 2+

14%

Oldham wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Hartlepool 1+ goals

74%

Hartlepool 2+ goals

39%

Hartlepool 3+ goals

15%

Oldham 1+ goals

81%

Oldham 2+ goals

50%

Oldham 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Hartlepool (draw refunded)

41%

Oldham (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hartlepool at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

Oldham away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.31 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hartlepool attack 1.40 + Oldham defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.35

Oldham attack 1.54 + Hartlepool defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Hartlepool scores more

31%

level

24%

Oldham scores more

45%

Oldham at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Oldham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

J. Lundstram↳ J. Stones

26'

D. Gardner

38'

M. Monthe

39'

L. Waterfall↳ N. Featherstone

41'

J. Stones

53'

A. Gomez Mancini

56'

M. Fondop-Talum← J. Stones

63'

A. Mancini

66'

J. Kay← J. Caprice

66'

S. Taylor← J. Lundstram

70'

K. LuaLua← G. Madine

77'

A. Smith

77'

J. Hunter← A. Gomez Mancini

85'

G. Sloggett← J. Grey

87'

S. Clucas

Hartlepool

Oldham

1

Hudson

20

▼

16

6

3

2

4

8

⚽

▼

Lundstram

30

Norwood

19

Gardner

24

A

▼

Stones

40

Smith

5

⚽

4

3

14

2

16

A

Featherst

8

⚽

▼

Mancini

9

▼

Madine

20

Dieseruvw

12

▼

Grey

Manager: D. Sarll

70'▲K. LuaLua←▼G. Madine

77'▲J. Hunter←▼A. Gomez Mancini

85'▲G. Sloggett←▼J. Grey

Hartlepool substitutes

32LuaLua7Hunter15Sloggett30Aungiers6Wallace31Young17Sass-Davies

Manager: M. Mellon

56'▲M. Fondop-Talum←▼J. Stones

66'▲J. Kay←▼J. Caprice

66'▲S. Taylor←▼J. Lundstram

Oldham substitutes

9Fondop-Talum11Kay32Taylor35Moloney33Khan14Garner21Sutton