Hartlepool 0–1 Newport County: Result & Stats

Hartlepool

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Newport County

2/21/2023

League Two · Round 22The Suit Direct Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Hartlepool40%

×Draw27%

Newport County33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HartlepoolExpected goals in this matchNewport County

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.17

Hartlepool

1.33

Newport County

1.17

Hartlepool creates 14% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 162 away

1.20

creates per match

1.04

1.30

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Hartlepool

1.20

Newport County

1.04

allows per match

Hartlepool

1.30

Newport County

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hartlepool+0.00on par

Newport County+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hartlepool ↓

Newport County →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Hartlepool or draw

67%

Hartlepool or Newport County

73%

Draw or Newport County

60%

Winning margin

Hartlepool wins by 2+

18%

Newport County wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Hartlepool 1+ goals

74%

Hartlepool 2+ goals

38%

Hartlepool 3+ goals

15%

Newport County 1+ goals

69%

Newport County 2+ goals

33%

Newport County 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Hartlepool (draw refunded)

55%

Newport County (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hartlepool at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.30 · 82 matches

Newport County away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.47 · 162 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hartlepool attack 1.20 + Newport County defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.33

Newport County attack 1.04 + Hartlepool defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Hartlepool scores more

40%

level

27%

Newport County scores more

33%

Hartlepool at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Hartlepool will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff