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Hartlepool vs Forest Green — League #43 2026

Hartlepool
Hartlepool
Preview
19:45
Forest Green
Forest Green
12/8/2026League #43League #43 · Round 22Victoria Park
Big match
44%
Hartlepool
model favours
44%25%31%

Hartlepool sit 9, Forest Green 21 in the table

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
53%
over 2.5 goals
56%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Hartlepool44%
×Draw25%
Forest Green31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hartlepool
1.54
Forest Green
1.25

Hartlepool creates 23% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 8 away

creates per match

Hartlepool
1.45
Forest Green
1.13

allows per match

Hartlepool
1.36
Forest Green
1.63

finishing

Hartlepool+0.00on par
Forest Green+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hartlepool ↓

Forest Green →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Hartlepool or draw
69%
Hartlepool or Forest Green
75%
Draw or Forest Green
56%

Winning margin

Hartlepool wins by 2+
22%
Forest Green wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Hartlepool 1+ goals
79%
Hartlepool 2+ goals
45%
Hartlepool 3+ goals
20%
Forest Green 1+ goals
71%
Forest Green 2+ goals
36%
Forest Green 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Hartlepool (draw refunded)
59%
Forest Green (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hartlepool at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.36 · 22 matches

Forest Green away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.63 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hartlepool attack 1.45 + Forest Green defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.54

Forest Green attack 1.13 + Hartlepool defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Hartlepool scores more
44%
level
25%
Forest Green scores more
31%

Hartlepool at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Hartlepool will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Hartlepool
WWWWD
Green
DWWLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Hartlepool vs Forest Green — Match Preview

Hartlepool face Forest Green on December 8, 2026 in this League #43 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Hartlepool host Forest Green at Victoria Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.