Forest Green 1–1 Hartlepool: Result & Stats

Forest Green

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Hartlepool

R. Hendry 53'

O. Bogle 69'

4/9/2022

League Two · Round 41The Fully Charged New Lawn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Forest Green45%

×Draw26%

Hartlepool29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Forest GreenExpected goals in this matchHartlepool

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

1.14

Forest Green

1.49

Hartlepool

1.14

Forest Green creates 31% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 81 away

1.20

creates per match

1.05

1.22

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Forest Green

1.20

Hartlepool

1.05

allows per match

Forest Green

1.22

Hartlepool

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Forest Green+0.00on par

Hartlepool+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Forest Green ↓

Hartlepool →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Forest Green or draw

71%

Forest Green or Hartlepool

74%

Draw or Hartlepool

55%

Winning margin

Forest Green wins by 2+

22%

Hartlepool wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Forest Green 1+ goals

77%

Forest Green 2+ goals

44%

Forest Green 3+ goals

19%

Hartlepool 1+ goals

68%

Hartlepool 2+ goals

32%

Hartlepool 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Forest Green (draw refunded)

61%

Hartlepool (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Forest Green at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.22 · 90 matches

Hartlepool away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.78 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Forest Green attack 1.20 + Hartlepool defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.49

Hartlepool attack 1.05 + Forest Green defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Forest Green scores more

45%

level

26%

Hartlepool scores more

29%

Forest Green at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Forest Green will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

T. Crawford

Hartlepool · M

7.7

Match Events

15'

53'

66'

69'

69'

O. Bogle↳ T. Crawford

75'

Jack Aitchison

77'

J. Young← J. Aitchison

81'

J. Grey← M. Carver

90+3'

I. Fletcher← O. Bogle

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ForestHartlepool

Overview

61%Possession39%

18Total Shots8

9Corners2

9Fouls7

Shots

18Total Shots8

5On Target1

8Off Target5

5Blocked2

15Inside Box5

3Outside Box3

Passing

61%Possession39%

510Total Passes329

399Accurate Passes216

78%Pass Accuracy66%

Goalkeeping

0Saves4

Discipline

9Fouls7

1Yellow Cards1

1Offsides1