Hartlepool 1–1 Crewe: Result & Stats | League Two

Hartlepool

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Crewe

J. Umerah 33' (pen)

D. Agyei 86'

9/13/2022

League Two · Round 9The Suit Direct Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Hartlepool38%

×Draw27%

Crewe35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HartlepoolExpected goals in this matchCrewe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.23

Hartlepool

1.29

Crewe

1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 82 home / 122 away

1.20

creates per match

1.16

1.30

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Hartlepool

1.20

Crewe

1.16

allows per match

Hartlepool

1.30

Crewe

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hartlepool+0.00on par

Crewe+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hartlepool ↓

Crewe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Hartlepool or draw

65%

Hartlepool or Crewe

73%

Draw or Crewe

62%

Winning margin

Hartlepool wins by 2+

17%

Crewe wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Hartlepool 1+ goals

72%

Hartlepool 2+ goals

37%

Hartlepool 3+ goals

14%

Crewe 1+ goals

71%

Crewe 2+ goals

35%

Crewe 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Hartlepool (draw refunded)

52%

Crewe (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hartlepool at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.30 · 82 matches

Crewe away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.38 · 122 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hartlepool attack 1.20 + Crewe defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.29

Crewe attack 1.16 + Hartlepool defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Hartlepool scores more

38%

level

27%

Crewe scores more

35%

Hartlepool at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Hartlepool will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26

R. Tumilty

Hartlepool · M

7.5

Match Events

33'

J. UmerahPenalty

46'

B. Sambou← C. Ainley

57'

T. Leshabela← C. Thomas

73'

J. Grey← C. Cooke

77'

C. Oduor← W. McDonald

81'

C. Finney← Z. Williams

86'

D. Agyei↳ C. Finney

87'

M. Shelton← R. Tumilty

90+3'

Eli King

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HartlepoolCrewe

Overview

46%Possession54%

15Total Shots12

4Corners2

11Fouls9

Shots

15Total Shots12

5On Target3

8Off Target6

2Blocked3

8Inside Box8

7Outside Box4

Passing

46%Possession54%

435Total Passes521

330Accurate Passes419

76%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

11Fouls9

0Yellow Cards1

2Offsides1