Hartlepool 0–2 Crawley Town: Result & Stats

Hartlepool

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Crawley Town

D. Telford 66', 40'

4/22/2023

League Two · Round 44The Suit Direct Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Hartlepool41%

×Draw26%

Crawley Town33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HartlepoolExpected goals in this matchCrawley Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.23

Hartlepool

1.41

Crawley Town

1.23

Hartlepool creates 15% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 151 away

1.20

creates per match

1.17

1.30

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Hartlepool

1.20

Crawley Town

1.17

allows per match

Hartlepool

1.30

Crawley Town

1.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hartlepool+0.00on par

Crawley Town+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hartlepool ↓

Crawley Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Hartlepool or draw

67%

Hartlepool or Crawley Town

74%

Draw or Crawley Town

59%

Winning margin

Hartlepool wins by 2+

19%

Crawley Town wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Hartlepool 1+ goals

76%

Hartlepool 2+ goals

41%

Hartlepool 3+ goals

17%

Crawley Town 1+ goals

71%

Crawley Town 2+ goals

35%

Crawley Town 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Hartlepool (draw refunded)

56%

Crawley Town (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hartlepool at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.30 · 82 matches

Crawley Town away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.62 · 151 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hartlepool attack 1.20 + Crawley Town defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.41

Crawley Town attack 1.17 + Hartlepool defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Hartlepool scores more

41%

level

26%

Crawley Town scores more

33%

Hartlepool at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Hartlepool will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

34

C. Addai

Crawley Town · G

8.6

Match Events

5'

25'

40'

53'

60'

W. McDonald← E. Pruti

62'

65'

65'

66'

67'

75'

J. Hamilton← M. Dolan

81'

R. Khaleel← D. Telford

86'

Dion Conroy

90+2'

Jack Hamilton

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HartlepoolCrawley

Overview

58%Possession42%

15Total Shots12

3Corners2

10Fouls13

Shots

15Total Shots12

5On Target3

10Off Target7

0Blocked2

10Inside Box7

5Outside Box5

Passing

58%Possession42%

357Total Passes277

232Accurate Passes159

65%Pass Accuracy57%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

Discipline

10Fouls13

2Yellow Cards4

4Offsides1