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Hartlepool vs Barrow — League #43 2026

Hartlepool
Hartlepool
Preview
14:00
Barrow
Barrow
8/8/2026League #43League #43 · Round 1Victoria Park
Big match
47%
Hartlepool
model favours
47%25%27%

Barrow score first in only 19% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
51%
over 2.5 goals
54%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Hartlepool47%
×Draw25%
Barrow27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hartlepool
1.57
Barrow
1.13

Hartlepool creates 39% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 10 away

creates per match

Hartlepool
1.45
Barrow
0.90

allows per match

Hartlepool
1.36
Barrow
1.70

finishing

Hartlepool+0.00on par
Barrow+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hartlepool ↓

Barrow →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
28%72%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Hartlepool or draw
73%
Hartlepool or Barrow
75%
Draw or Barrow
53%

Winning margin

Hartlepool wins by 2+
24%
Barrow wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Hartlepool 1+ goals
79%
Hartlepool 2+ goals
46%
Hartlepool 3+ goals
21%
Barrow 1+ goals
68%
Barrow 2+ goals
31%
Barrow 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Hartlepool (draw refunded)
63%
Barrow (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hartlepool at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.36 · 22 matches

Barrow away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.70 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hartlepool attack 1.45 + Barrow defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.57

Barrow attack 0.90 + Hartlepool defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Hartlepool scores more
47%
level
25%
Barrow scores more
27%

Hartlepool at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Hartlepool will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Barrow win just 12% of their away games
  • 50% of Barrow’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • Barrow matches are rarely goalless — only 2.7% end 0-0
  • 20% of Barrow’s goals come in the first 15 minutes

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Hartlepool
WWWWD
Barrow
DWWLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Hartlepool face Barrow (League #43)

League #43 returns with Hartlepool hosting Barrow. Match starts August 8, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Hartlepool host Barrow at Victoria Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.