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Hartlepool vs Barrow — League Two 2018

Hartlepool
Hartlepool
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Barrow
Barrow
C. Jennings 90+4'
J. Sterry 68'
J. Hamilton 42'
G. Garner 21'
4/29/2023League TwoLeague Two · Round 45The Suit Direct Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Hartlepool41%
×Draw27%
Barrow32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hartlepool
1.32
Barrow
1.15

Hartlepool creates 15% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 138 away

creates per match

Hartlepool
1.20
Barrow
0.99

allows per match

Hartlepool
1.30
Barrow
1.44

finishing

Hartlepool+0.00on par
Barrow+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hartlepool ↓

Barrow →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Hartlepool or draw
68%
Hartlepool or Barrow
73%
Draw or Barrow
59%

Winning margin

Hartlepool wins by 2+
18%
Barrow wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Hartlepool 1+ goals
73%
Hartlepool 2+ goals
38%
Hartlepool 3+ goals
15%
Barrow 1+ goals
68%
Barrow 2+ goals
32%
Barrow 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Hartlepool (draw refunded)
56%
Barrow (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hartlepool at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.30 · 82 matches

Barrow away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.44 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hartlepool attack 1.20 + Barrow defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.32

Barrow attack 0.99 + Hartlepool defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Hartlepool scores more
41%
level
27%
Barrow scores more
32%

Hartlepool at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Hartlepool will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2
J. SterryHartlepoolHartlepool · M
7.9

Match Events

21'
G. Garner↳ J. Gordon
25'
Jack Hamilton
42'
J. Hamilton
59'
Tom White
62'
J. Kay← G. Garner
67'
E. Newby← B. Whitfield
67'
T. Warren← T. White
68'
J. Sterry↳ T. Crawford
73'
Harrison Neal
76'
J. Young← G. Ray
79'
Harrison Neal
79'
Harrison Neal
82'
Tom Crawford
87'
J. Umerah← J. Hamilton
90+7'
Paul Farman
90+7'
Patrick Brough
90+7'
Patrick Brough
90+7'
Patrick Brough
90+4'
C. Jennings

Possession

67%Hartlepool

Shots

13Hartlepool

Pass accuracy

57%Hartlepool

Statistics

HartlepoolBarrow
Overview
67%Possession33%
13Total Shots7
10Corners3
9Fouls9
Shots
13Total Shots7
5On Target2
6Off Target4
2Blocked1
9Inside Box5
4Outside Box2
Passing
67%Possession33%
565Total Passes280
446Accurate Passes168
79%Pass Accuracy60%
Goalkeeping
1Saves2
Discipline
9Fouls9
2Yellow Cards6
0Red Cards2
1Offsides1

Match Recap: Hartlepool vs Barrow

Hartlepool beat Barrow 3-1 in League Two on April 29, 2023.

Goals: G. Garner (21'), J. Hamilton (42'), J. Sterry (68'), C. Jennings (90+4').

Hartlepool controlled possession (67%) and registered 13 shots to 7.

The match was played at The Suit Direct Stadium in Hartlepool, County Durham.