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Hartlepool vs AFC Wimbledon — League Two 2018

Hartlepool
Hartlepool
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
AFC Wimbledon
AFC Wimbledon
8/6/2022League TwoLeague Two · Round 2The Suit Direct Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Hartlepool37%
×Draw29%
AFC Wimbledon35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hartlepool
1.15
AFC Wimbledon
1.11

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 82 home / 73 away

creates per match

Hartlepool
1.20
AFC Wimbledon
0.93

allows per match

Hartlepool
1.30
AFC Wimbledon
1.10

finishing

Hartlepool+0.00on par
AFC Wimbledon+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hartlepool ↓

AFC Wimbledon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Hartlepool or draw
65%
Hartlepool or AFC Wimbledon
71%
Draw or AFC Wimbledon
63%

Winning margin

Hartlepool wins by 2+
15%
AFC Wimbledon wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Hartlepool 1+ goals
68%
Hartlepool 2+ goals
32%
Hartlepool 3+ goals
11%
AFC Wimbledon 1+ goals
67%
AFC Wimbledon 2+ goals
30%
AFC Wimbledon 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Hartlepool (draw refunded)
51%
AFC Wimbledon (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hartlepool at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.30 · 82 matches

AFC Wimbledon away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.10 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hartlepool attack 1.20 + AFC Wimbledon defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.15

AFC Wimbledon attack 0.93 + Hartlepool defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Hartlepool scores more
37%
level
29%
AFC Wimbledon scores more
35%

Hartlepool at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Hartlepool will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
B. KillipHartlepoolHartlepool · G
7.9

Match Events

59'
T. Crawford← M. Niang
73'
N. Young-Coombes← J. Davison
78'
Callum Cooke
84'
K. Hudlin← E. Chislett
87'
E. Taylor← J. Hastie
89'
Nicky Featherstone
90+1'
Tom Crawford

Possession

55%Hartlepool

Shots

12Hartlepool

Pass accuracy

51%Hartlepool

Statistics

HartlepoolAFC
Overview
55%Possession45%
12Total Shots7
6Corners5
12Fouls12
Shots
12Total Shots7
2On Target4
6Off Target3
4Blocked0
9Inside Box5
3Outside Box2
Passing
55%Possession45%
487Total Passes406
402Accurate Passes323
83%Pass Accuracy80%
Goalkeeping
4Saves2
Discipline
12Fouls12
3Yellow Cards0
0Offsides4

League Two: Hartlepool 0–0 AFC Wimbledon

Hartlepool and AFC Wimbledon drew 0-0 in League Two on August 6, 2022.

Hartlepool controlled possession (55%) and registered 12 shots to 7.

The match was played at The Suit Direct Stadium in Hartlepool, County Durham.