Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Hartford Athletic vs Sporting KC II — USL Championship 2018

Hartford Athletic
Hartford Athletic
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Sporting KC II
Sporting KC II
10/5/2019USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 57Dillon Stadium (Hartford)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Hartford Athletic49%
×Draw23%
Sporting KC II28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hartford Athletic
1.85
Sporting KC II
1.34

Hartford Athletic creates 38% more chances

Season form · 116 home / 66 away

creates per match

Hartford Athletic
1.51
Sporting KC II
1.18

allows per match

Hartford Athletic
1.50
Sporting KC II
2.18

finishing

Hartford Athletic+0.00on par
Sporting KC II+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hartford Athletic ↓

Sporting KC II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Hartford Athletic or draw
72%
Hartford Athletic or Sporting KC II
77%
Draw or Sporting KC II
51%

Winning margin

Hartford Athletic wins by 2+
27%
Sporting KC II wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Hartford Athletic 1+ goals
84%
Hartford Athletic 2+ goals
55%
Hartford Athletic 3+ goals
28%
Sporting KC II 1+ goals
74%
Sporting KC II 2+ goals
39%
Sporting KC II 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Hartford Athletic (draw refunded)
64%
Sporting KC II (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hartford Athletic at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.50 · 116 matches

Sporting KC II away — creates 1.18, concedes 2.18 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hartford Athletic attack 1.51 + Sporting KC II defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.85

Sporting KC II attack 1.18 + Hartford Athletic defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Hartford Athletic scores more
49%
level
23%
Sporting KC II scores more
28%

Hartford Athletic at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Hartford Athletic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL Championship: Hartford Athletic 2–2 Sporting KC II

Hartford Athletic and Sporting KC II drew 2-2 in USL Championship on October 5, 2019.

The match was played at Dillon Stadium (Hartford).