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Hartford Athletic vs Rio Grande Valley — USL Championship 2018

Hartford Athletic
Hartford Athletic
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 2
Rio Grande Valley
Rio Grande Valley
10/4/2023USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 39Trinity Health Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Hartford Athletic42%
×Draw24%
Rio Grande Valley33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hartford Athletic
1.58
Rio Grande Valley
1.38

Hartford Athletic creates 14% more chances

Season form · 116 home / 93 away

creates per match

Hartford Athletic
1.51
Rio Grande Valley
1.25

allows per match

Hartford Athletic
1.50
Rio Grande Valley
1.66

finishing

Hartford Athletic+0.00on par
Rio Grande Valley+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hartford Athletic ↓

Rio Grande Valley →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Hartford Athletic or draw
67%
Hartford Athletic or Rio Grande Valley
76%
Draw or Rio Grande Valley
58%

Winning margin

Hartford Athletic wins by 2+
21%
Rio Grande Valley wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Hartford Athletic 1+ goals
79%
Hartford Athletic 2+ goals
47%
Hartford Athletic 3+ goals
21%
Rio Grande Valley 1+ goals
75%
Rio Grande Valley 2+ goals
40%
Rio Grande Valley 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Hartford Athletic (draw refunded)
56%
Rio Grande Valley (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hartford Athletic at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.50 · 116 matches

Rio Grande Valley away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.66 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hartford Athletic attack 1.51 + Rio Grande Valley defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.58

Rio Grande Valley attack 1.25 + Hartford Athletic defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Hartford Athletic scores more
42%
level
24%
Rio Grande Valley scores more
33%

Hartford Athletic at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Hartford Athletic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hartford Athletic vs Rio Grande Valley

Hartford Athletic and Rio Grande Valley drew 2-2 in USL Championship on October 4, 2023.

The match was played at Trinity Health Stadium in Hartford.