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Hartford Athletic vs Philadelphia Union II — USL Championship 2018

Hartford Athletic
Hartford Athletic
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Philadelphia Union II
Philadelphia Union II
9/23/2020USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 25Dillon Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Hartford Athletic48%
×Draw23%
Philadelphia Union II29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hartford Athletic
1.85
Philadelphia Union II
1.40

Hartford Athletic creates 32% more chances

Season form · 116 home / 43 away

creates per match

Hartford Athletic
1.51
Philadelphia Union II
1.30

allows per match

Hartford Athletic
1.50
Philadelphia Union II
2.19

finishing

Hartford Athletic+0.00on par
Philadelphia Union II+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hartford Athletic ↓

Philadelphia Union II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Hartford Athletic or draw
71%
Hartford Athletic or Philadelphia Union II
77%
Draw or Philadelphia Union II
52%

Winning margin

Hartford Athletic wins by 2+
26%
Philadelphia Union II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Hartford Athletic 1+ goals
84%
Hartford Athletic 2+ goals
55%
Hartford Athletic 3+ goals
28%
Philadelphia Union II 1+ goals
75%
Philadelphia Union II 2+ goals
41%
Philadelphia Union II 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Hartford Athletic (draw refunded)
62%
Philadelphia Union II (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hartford Athletic at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.50 · 116 matches

Philadelphia Union II away — creates 1.30, concedes 2.19 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hartford Athletic attack 1.51 + Philadelphia Union II defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.85

Philadelphia Union II attack 1.30 + Hartford Athletic defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Hartford Athletic scores more
48%
level
23%
Philadelphia Union II scores more
29%

Hartford Athletic at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Hartford Athletic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL Championship: Hartford Athletic 1–1 Philadelphia Union II

Hartford Athletic and Philadelphia Union II drew 1-1 in USL Championship on September 23, 2020.

The match was played at Dillon Stadium in Hartford.