Hart Acedemy 1–1 TMT: Result & Stats | GFA League

Hart Acedemy

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

TMT

5/8/2025

GFA League · Round 23

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Hart Acedemy40%

×Draw33%

TMT27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hart AcedemyExpected goals in this matchTMT

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

0.75

Hart Acedemy

1.00

TMT

0.75

Hart Acedemy creates 33% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 45 away

1.13

creates per match

0.67

0.83

allows per match

0.87

creates per match

Hart Acedemy

1.13

TMT

0.67

allows per match

Hart Acedemy

0.83

TMT

0.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hart Acedemy+0.00on par

TMT+0.00on par

Total goals

Under74
Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No67
Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hart Acedemy ↓

TMT →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–017%

0–113%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

83%17%1.5

52%48%2.5

26%74%3.5

10%90%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Hart Acedemy or draw

73%

Hart Acedemy or TMT

67%

Draw or TMT

60%

Winning margin

Hart Acedemy wins by 2+

16%

TMT wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Hart Acedemy 1+ goals

63%

Hart Acedemy 2+ goals

26%

Hart Acedemy 3+ goals

8%

TMT 1+ goals

53%

TMT 2+ goals

17%

TMT 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Hart Acedemy (draw refunded)

60%

TMT (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

20%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hart Acedemy at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.83 · 30 matches

TMT away — creates 0.67, concedes 0.87 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hart Acedemy attack 1.13 + TMT defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.00

TMT attack 0.67 + Hart Acedemy defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Hart Acedemy scores more

40%

level

33%

TMT scores more

27%

Hart Acedemy at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Hart Acedemy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff