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Hart Acedemy vs Medina United — GFA League 2020

Hart Acedemy
Hart Acedemy
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Medina United
Medina United
2/13/2026GFA LeagueGFA League · Round 12

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Hart Acedemy29%
×Draw31%
Medina United40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hart Acedemy
0.86
Medina United
1.08

Medina United creates 26% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 15 away

creates per match

Hart Acedemy
1.13
Medina United
1.33

allows per match

Hart Acedemy
0.83
Medina United
0.60

finishing

Hart Acedemy+0.00on par
Medina United+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hart Acedemy ↓

Medina United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–116%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Hart Acedemy or draw
60%
Hart Acedemy or Medina United
69%
Draw or Medina United
71%

Winning margin

Hart Acedemy wins by 2+
10%
Medina United wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Hart Acedemy 1+ goals
58%
Hart Acedemy 2+ goals
21%
Hart Acedemy 3+ goals
6%
Medina United 1+ goals
66%
Medina United 2+ goals
29%
Medina United 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Hart Acedemy (draw refunded)
42%
Medina United (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hart Acedemy at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.83 · 30 matches

Medina United away — creates 1.33, concedes 0.60 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hart Acedemy attack 1.13 + Medina United defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.86

Medina United attack 1.33 + Hart Acedemy defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Hart Acedemy scores more
29%
level
31%
Medina United scores more
40%

Medina United at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Medina United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

GFA League: Hart Acedemy 2–0 Medina United

Hart Acedemy beat Medina United 2-0 in GFA League on February 13, 2026.