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Hart Acedemy vs Falcons — GFA League 2020

Hart Acedemy
Hart Acedemy
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Falcons
Falcons
12/17/2025GFA LeagueGFA League · Round 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Hart Acedemy40%
×Draw33%
Falcons27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hart Acedemy
1.00
Falcons
0.75

Hart Acedemy creates 33% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 15 away

creates per match

Hart Acedemy
1.13
Falcons
0.67

allows per match

Hart Acedemy
0.83
Falcons
0.87

finishing

Hart Acedemy+0.00on par
Falcons+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Under
  • Under74
  • Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hart Acedemy ↓

Falcons →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–113%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
52%48%2.5
26%74%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Hart Acedemy or draw
73%
Hart Acedemy or Falcons
67%
Draw or Falcons
60%

Winning margin

Hart Acedemy wins by 2+
16%
Falcons wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Hart Acedemy 1+ goals
63%
Hart Acedemy 2+ goals
26%
Hart Acedemy 3+ goals
8%
Falcons 1+ goals
53%
Falcons 2+ goals
17%
Falcons 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Hart Acedemy (draw refunded)
60%
Falcons (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hart Acedemy at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.83 · 30 matches

Falcons away — creates 0.67, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hart Acedemy attack 1.13 + Falcons defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.00

Falcons attack 0.67 + Hart Acedemy defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Hart Acedemy scores more
40%
level
33%
Falcons scores more
27%

Hart Acedemy at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Hart Acedemy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

GFA League: Hart Acedemy 2–0 Falcons

Hart Acedemy beat Falcons 2-0 in GFA League on December 17, 2025.