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Hart Acedemy vs Dutch Lions — GFA League 2020

Hart Acedemy
Hart Acedemy
FT
5 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Dutch Lions
Dutch Lions
1/4/2025GFA LeagueGFA League · Round 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Hart Acedemy46%
×Draw30%
Dutch Lions24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hart Acedemy
1.18
Dutch Lions
0.76

Hart Acedemy creates 55% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 30 away

creates per match

Hart Acedemy
1.13
Dutch Lions
0.70

allows per match

Hart Acedemy
0.83
Dutch Lions
1.23

finishing

Hart Acedemy+0.00on par
Dutch Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hart Acedemy ↓

Dutch Lions →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Hart Acedemy or draw
76%
Hart Acedemy or Dutch Lions
70%
Draw or Dutch Lions
54%

Winning margin

Hart Acedemy wins by 2+
20%
Dutch Lions wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Hart Acedemy 1+ goals
69%
Hart Acedemy 2+ goals
33%
Hart Acedemy 3+ goals
12%
Dutch Lions 1+ goals
53%
Dutch Lions 2+ goals
18%
Dutch Lions 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Hart Acedemy (draw refunded)
66%
Dutch Lions (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hart Acedemy at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.83 · 30 matches

Dutch Lions away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.23 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hart Acedemy attack 1.13 + Dutch Lions defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.18

Dutch Lions attack 0.70 + Hart Acedemy defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Hart Acedemy scores more
46%
level
30%
Dutch Lions scores more
24%

Hart Acedemy at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Hart Acedemy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

GFA League: Hart Acedemy 5–0 Dutch Lions

Hart Acedemy beat Dutch Lions 5-0 in GFA League on January 4, 2025.