Harstad 6–1 HamKam II: Result & Stats

Harstad

FT

6 – 1

HT: 5 – 0

HamKam II

6/2/2024

3. Division - Girone 6 · Group 6 - 9Harstad Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Harstad49%

×Draw19%

HamKam II33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HarstadExpected goals in this matchHamKam II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.73

2.23

Harstad

2.73

HamKam II

2.23

Harstad creates 22% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 13 away

2.46

creates per match

2.23

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

Harstad

2.46

HamKam II

2.23

allows per match

Harstad

2.23

HamKam II

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Harstad+0.00on par

HamKam II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over87
Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes83
No17

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Harstad ↓

HamKam II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–02%

1–14%

1–25%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–26%

3–35%

3–43%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–24%

4–33%

4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

96%4%2.5

87%13%3.5

72%28%4.5

54%46%

Double chance

Harstad or draw

67%

Harstad or HamKam II

81%

Draw or HamKam II

51%

Winning margin

Harstad wins by 2+

31%

HamKam II wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Harstad 1+ goals

93%

Harstad 2+ goals

75%

Harstad 3+ goals

50%

HamKam II 1+ goals

89%

HamKam II 2+ goals

65%

HamKam II 3+ goals

38%

Draw no bet

Harstad (draw refunded)

60%

HamKam II (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

79%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Harstad at home — creates 2.46, concedes 2.23 · 26 matches

HamKam II away — creates 2.23, concedes 3.00 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Harstad attack 2.46 + HamKam II defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.73

HamKam II attack 2.23 + Harstad defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 2.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Harstad scores more

49%

level

19%

HamKam II scores more

33%

Harstad at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Harstad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff