Harstad 0–2 Funnefoss / Vormsund: Result & Stats

Harstad

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Funnefoss / Vormsund

S. A. Butt 76'

T. R. Linthoe 48'

9/13/2025

3. Division - Girone 1 · Group 1 - 20Harstad Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Harstad43%

×Draw20%

Funnefoss / Vormsund38%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HarstadExpected goals in this matchFunnefoss / Vormsund

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.37

2.23

Harstad

2.37

Funnefoss / Vormsund

2.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 20 away

2.08

creates per match

1.60

2.85

allows per match

2.65

creates per match

Harstad

2.08

Funnefoss / Vormsund

1.60

allows per match

Harstad

2.85

Funnefoss / Vormsund

2.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Harstad+0.00on par

Funnefoss / Vormsund+0.00on par

Total goals

Over83
Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes81
No19

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Harstad ↓

Funnefoss / Vormsund →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–02%

1–15%

1–26%

1–34%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

83%17%3.5

67%33%4.5

48%52%

Double chance

Harstad or draw

62%

Harstad or Funnefoss / Vormsund

80%

Draw or Funnefoss / Vormsund

57%

Winning margin

Harstad wins by 2+

25%

Funnefoss / Vormsund wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Harstad 1+ goals

91%

Harstad 2+ goals

68%

Harstad 3+ goals

42%

Funnefoss / Vormsund 1+ goals

89%

Funnefoss / Vormsund 2+ goals

65%

Funnefoss / Vormsund 3+ goals

38%

Draw no bet

Harstad (draw refunded)

53%

Funnefoss / Vormsund (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

75%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Harstad at home — creates 2.08, concedes 2.85 · 13 matches

Funnefoss / Vormsund away — creates 1.60, concedes 2.65 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Harstad attack 2.08 + Funnefoss / Vormsund defence 2.65 → ÷2 → 2.37

Funnefoss / Vormsund attack 1.60 + Harstad defence 2.85 → ÷2 → 2.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Harstad scores more

43%

level

20%

Funnefoss / Vormsund scores more

38%

Harstad at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Harstad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

48'

T. R. Linthoe

76'

S. A. Butt

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff