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Harstad vs Alta II — 3. Division - Girone 1 2021

Harstad
Harstad
FT
6 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Alta II
Alta II
T. Windstad 90', 84'
M. Varmedal-Haugan 79'
K. Evensen 53'
M. Sandvik 44'
K. W. Iversen 7'
10/12/20253. Division - Girone 13. Division - Girone 1 · Group 1 - 24Harstad Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Harstad54%
×Draw18%
Alta II28%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Harstad
3.00
Alta II
2.16

Harstad creates 39% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Harstad
2.08
Alta II
1.46

allows per match

Harstad
2.85
Alta II
3.92

finishing

Harstad+0.00on par
Alta II+0.00on par

Total goals

88%Over
  • Over88
  • Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

84%Yes
  • Yes84
  • No16

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Harstad ↓

Alta II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–14%
1–24%
1–33%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–35%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–25%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–1 (6%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
88%12%3.5
75%25%4.5
57%43%

Double chance

Harstad or draw
72%
Harstad or Alta II
82%
Draw or Alta II
46%

Winning margin

Harstad wins by 2+
36%
Alta II wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Harstad 1+ goals
95%
Harstad 2+ goals
79%
Harstad 3+ goals
56%
Alta II 1+ goals
88%
Alta II 2+ goals
63%
Alta II 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Harstad (draw refunded)
66%
Alta II (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
80%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Harstad at home — creates 2.08, concedes 2.85 · 13 matches

Alta II away — creates 1.46, concedes 3.92 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Harstad attack 2.08 + Alta II defence 3.92 → ÷2 → 3.00

Alta II attack 1.46 + Harstad defence 2.85 → ÷2 → 2.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Harstad scores more
54%
level
18%
Alta II scores more
28%

Harstad at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Harstad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'
K. W. Iversen
44'
M. Sandvik
53'
K. Evensen
79'
M. Varmedal-Haugan
84'
T. Windstad
90'
T. Windstad

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Harstad vs Alta II

Harstad beat Alta II 6-0 in 3. Division - Girone 1 on October 12, 2025.

Goals: K. W. Iversen (7'), M. Sandvik (44'), K. Evensen (53'), M. Varmedal-Haugan (79'), T. Windstad (84', 90').

The match was played at Harstad Stadion in Harstad.