Harrogate Town 0–0 Stevenage: Result & Stats

Harrogate Town

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Stevenage

9/25/2021

League Two · Round 9EnviroVent Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

Harrogate Town38%

×Draw28%

Stevenage34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Harrogate TownExpected goals in this matchStevenage

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.14

Harrogate Town

1.21

Stevenage

1.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 138 home / 100 away

1.19

creates per match

0.80

1.47

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Harrogate Town

1.19

Stevenage

0.80

allows per match

Harrogate Town

1.47

Stevenage

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Harrogate Town+0.00on par

Stevenage+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Harrogate Town ↓

Stevenage →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Harrogate Town or draw

66%

Harrogate Town or Stevenage

72%

Draw or Stevenage

62%

Winning margin

Harrogate Town wins by 2+

16%

Stevenage wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Harrogate Town 1+ goals

70%

Harrogate Town 2+ goals

34%

Harrogate Town 3+ goals

12%

Stevenage 1+ goals

68%

Stevenage 2+ goals

32%

Stevenage 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Harrogate Town (draw refunded)

52%

Stevenage (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Harrogate Town at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.47 · 138 matches

Stevenage away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.24 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Harrogate Town attack 1.19 + Stevenage defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.21

Stevenage attack 0.80 + Harrogate Town defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Harrogate Town scores more

38%

level

28%

Stevenage scores more

34%

Harrogate Town at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Harrogate Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

C. Hall

Harrogate Town · D

8.0

Match Events

46'

N. Sheron← R. McArdle

64'

64'

66'

69'

69'

D. Orsi-Dadomo← J. Muldoon

72'

Luther Wildin

77'

L. Norris← E. List

85'

Bruno Andrade← J. Reid

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HarrogateStevenage

Overview

59%Possession41%

9Total Shots12

8Corners7

7Fouls18

Shots

9Total Shots12

1On Target5

6Off Target2

2Blocked5

6Inside Box9

3Outside Box3

Passing

59%Possession41%

428Total Passes302

294Accurate Passes161

69%Pass Accuracy53%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

7Fouls18

1Yellow Cards3

2Offsides0