Harrogate Town 0–2 Leyton Orient: Result & Stats

Harrogate Town

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Leyton Orient

G. Moncur 24' (pen)

P. Smyth 7'

11/12/2022

League Two · Round 18EnviroVent Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Harrogate Town33%

×Draw27%

Leyton Orient40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Harrogate TownExpected goals in this matchLeyton Orient

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.32

Harrogate Town

1.19

Leyton Orient

1.32

Leyton Orient creates 11% more chances

Season form · 138 home / 94 away

1.19

creates per match

1.17

1.47

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Harrogate Town

1.19

Leyton Orient

1.17

allows per match

Harrogate Town

1.47

Leyton Orient

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Harrogate Town+0.00on par

Leyton Orient+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Harrogate Town ↓

Leyton Orient →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Harrogate Town or draw

60%

Harrogate Town or Leyton Orient

73%

Draw or Leyton Orient

67%

Winning margin

Harrogate Town wins by 2+

14%

Leyton Orient wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Harrogate Town 1+ goals

70%

Harrogate Town 2+ goals

33%

Harrogate Town 3+ goals

12%

Leyton Orient 1+ goals

73%

Leyton Orient 2+ goals

38%

Leyton Orient 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Harrogate Town (draw refunded)

46%

Leyton Orient (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Harrogate Town at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.47 · 138 matches

Leyton Orient away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.20 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Harrogate Town attack 1.19 + Leyton Orient defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.19

Leyton Orient attack 1.17 + Harrogate Town defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Harrogate Town scores more

33%

level

27%

Leyton Orient scores more

40%

Leyton Orient at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Leyton Orient will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

L. Vigouroux

Leyton Orient · G

8.0

Match Events

7'

P. Smyth↳ G. Moncur

24'

G. MoncurPenalty

46'

Jaheim Headley

73'

A. Drinan← C. Kelman

75'

S. Folarin← J. Muldoon

77'

J. Sweeney← R. Hunt

81'

J. Austerfield← J. Falkingham

86'

Josh Austerfield

87'

S. Duke-McKenna← P. Smyth

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HarrogateLeyton

Overview

53%Possession47%

16Total Shots15

7Corners3

10Fouls8

Shots

16Total Shots15

6On Target6

5Off Target7

5Blocked2

11Inside Box7

5Outside Box8

Passing

53%Possession47%

422Total Passes384

313Accurate Passes286

74%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

4Saves5

Discipline

10Fouls8

2Yellow Cards0

1Offsides1