Harrogate Town 0–1 Forest Green: Result & Stats

Harrogate Town

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Forest Green

8/12/2023

League Two · Round 2EnviroVent Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 112+ matches

Harrogate Town31%

×Draw26%

Forest Green43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Harrogate TownExpected goals in this matchForest Green

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

1.46

Harrogate Town

1.20

Forest Green

1.46

Forest Green creates 22% more chances

Season form · 138 home / 112 away

1.19

creates per match

1.44

1.47

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Harrogate Town

1.19

Forest Green

1.44

allows per match

Harrogate Town

1.47

Forest Green

1.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Harrogate Town+0.00on par

Forest Green+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Harrogate Town ↓

Forest Green →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Harrogate Town or draw

57%

Harrogate Town or Forest Green

74%

Draw or Forest Green

69%

Winning margin

Harrogate Town wins by 2+

13%

Forest Green wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Harrogate Town 1+ goals

70%

Harrogate Town 2+ goals

34%

Harrogate Town 3+ goals

12%

Forest Green 1+ goals

77%

Forest Green 2+ goals

43%

Forest Green 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Harrogate Town (draw refunded)

42%

Forest Green (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Harrogate Town at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.47 · 138 matches

Forest Green away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.21 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Harrogate Town attack 1.19 + Forest Green defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.20

Forest Green attack 1.44 + Harrogate Town defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Harrogate Town scores more

31%

level

26%

Forest Green scores more

43%

Forest Green at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Forest Green will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff