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Harrogate Town vs Crawley Town — League Two 2018

Harrogate Town
Harrogate Town
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Crawley Town
Crawley Town
9/6/2025League TwoLeague Two · Round 7Exercise Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 138+ matches

Harrogate Town40%
×Draw26%
Crawley Town34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Harrogate Town
1.41
Crawley Town
1.27

Harrogate Town creates 11% more chances

Season form · 138 home / 158 away

creates per match

Harrogate Town
1.19
Crawley Town
1.08

allows per match

Harrogate Town
1.47
Crawley Town
1.63

finishing

Harrogate Town+0.00on par
Crawley Town+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Harrogate Town ↓

Crawley Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Harrogate Town or draw
66%
Harrogate Town or Crawley Town
74%
Draw or Crawley Town
60%

Winning margin

Harrogate Town wins by 2+
19%
Crawley Town wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Harrogate Town 1+ goals
76%
Harrogate Town 2+ goals
41%
Harrogate Town 3+ goals
17%
Crawley Town 1+ goals
72%
Crawley Town 2+ goals
36%
Crawley Town 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Harrogate Town (draw refunded)
54%
Crawley Town (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Harrogate Town at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.47 · 138 matches

Crawley Town away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.63 · 158 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Harrogate Town attack 1.19 + Crawley Town defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.41

Crawley Town attack 1.08 + Harrogate Town defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Harrogate Town scores more
40%
level
26%
Crawley Town scores more
34%

Harrogate Town at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Harrogate Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Harrogate Town vs Crawley Town

Crawley Town beat Harrogate Town 1-0 in League Two on September 6, 2025.

The match was played at Exercise Stadium in Harrogate.