Harrogate Town 1–2 Colchester: Result & Stats

Harrogate Town

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Colchester

J. Muldoon 4'

N. Chilvers 45'

F. Sears 21'

4/2/2022

League Two · Round 40EnviroVent Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Harrogate Town40%

×Draw25%

Colchester35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Harrogate TownExpected goals in this matchColchester

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.37

Harrogate Town

1.50

Colchester

1.37

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 14 away

1.20

creates per match

1.21

1.53

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

Harrogate Town

1.20

Colchester

1.21

allows per match

Harrogate Town

1.53

Colchester

1.81

-0.64scores less than expected

finishing

+0.15scores more than expected

finishing

Harrogate Town-0.64scores less

Colchester+0.15scores more

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Harrogate Town ↓

Colchester →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Harrogate Town or draw

65%

Harrogate Town or Colchester

75%

Draw or Colchester

60%

Winning margin

Harrogate Town wins by 2+

20%

Colchester wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Harrogate Town 1+ goals

78%

Harrogate Town 2+ goals

44%

Harrogate Town 3+ goals

19%

Colchester 1+ goals

75%

Colchester 2+ goals

40%

Colchester 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Harrogate Town (draw refunded)

54%

Colchester (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Harrogate Town at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.53 · 9 matches

Colchester away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.81 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Harrogate Town attack 1.20 + Colchester defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.50

Colchester attack 1.21 + Harrogate Town defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Harrogate Town scores more

40%

level

25%

Colchester scores more

35%

Harrogate Town at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Harrogate Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

N. Chilvers

Colchester · M

8.3

Match Events

4'

J. Muldoon↳ L. Armstrong

21'

Junior Tchamadeu

21'

F. Sears↳ N. Chilvers

45'

N. Chilvers↳ F. Sears

53'

Noah Chilvers

68'

S. Power← C. Kavanagh

68'

A. Judge← J. Tchamadeu

78'

Cameron Coxe

81'

E. Ilesanmi← J. Muldoon

84'

M. Welch-Hayes← C. Skuse

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HarrogateColchester

Overview

63%Possession37%

11Total Shots8

7Corners4

7Fouls11

Shots

11Total Shots8

3On Target5

4Off Target3

4Blocked0

5Inside Box6

6Outside Box2

Passing

63%Possession37%

489Total Passes295

336Accurate Passes144

69%Pass Accuracy49%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

7Fouls11

0Yellow Cards3

0Offsides3