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Colchester vs Harrogate Town — League Two 2018

Colchester
Colchester
FT
3 – 1
HT: 3 – 1
Harrogate Town
Harrogate Town
10/18/2025League TwoLeague Two · Round 13Colchester Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 138+ matches

Colchester44%
×Draw27%
Harrogate Town29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Colchester
1.41
Harrogate Town
1.10

Colchester creates 28% more chances

Season form · 180 home / 138 away

creates per match

Colchester
1.37
Harrogate Town
1.11

allows per match

Colchester
1.09
Harrogate Town
1.44

finishing

Colchester+0.00on par
Harrogate Town+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colchester ↓

Harrogate Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Colchester or draw
71%
Colchester or Harrogate Town
73%
Draw or Harrogate Town
56%

Winning margin

Colchester wins by 2+
21%
Harrogate Town wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Colchester 1+ goals
76%
Colchester 2+ goals
41%
Colchester 3+ goals
17%
Harrogate Town 1+ goals
67%
Harrogate Town 2+ goals
30%
Harrogate Town 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Colchester (draw refunded)
60%
Harrogate Town (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colchester at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.09 · 180 matches

Harrogate Town away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.44 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colchester attack 1.37 + Harrogate Town defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.41

Harrogate Town attack 1.11 + Colchester defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Colchester scores more
44%
level
27%
Harrogate Town scores more
29%

Colchester at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Colchester will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Colchester vs Harrogate Town

Colchester beat Harrogate Town 3-1 in League Two on October 18, 2025.

The match was played at Colchester Community Stadium in Colchester.