Harrogate Town 1–2 Bolton: Result & Stats

Harrogate Town

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Bolton

G. Thomson 61'

N. Delfouneso 56'

E. Doyle 11'

10/3/2020

League Two · Round 4The Keepmoat Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Harrogate Town31%

×Draw26%

Bolton43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Harrogate TownExpected goals in this matchBolton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

1.43

Harrogate Town

1.18

Bolton

1.43

Bolton creates 21% more chances

Season form · 138 home / 23 away

1.19

creates per match

1.39

1.47

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Harrogate Town

1.19

Bolton

1.39

allows per match

Harrogate Town

1.47

Bolton

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Harrogate Town+0.00on par

Bolton+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Harrogate Town ↓

Bolton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Harrogate Town or draw

57%

Harrogate Town or Bolton

74%

Draw or Bolton

69%

Winning margin

Harrogate Town wins by 2+

13%

Bolton wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Harrogate Town 1+ goals

69%

Harrogate Town 2+ goals

33%

Harrogate Town 3+ goals

12%

Bolton 1+ goals

76%

Bolton 2+ goals

42%

Bolton 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Harrogate Town (draw refunded)

42%

Bolton (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Harrogate Town at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.47 · 138 matches

Bolton away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.17 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Harrogate Town attack 1.19 + Bolton defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.18

Bolton attack 1.39 + Harrogate Town defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Harrogate Town scores more

31%

level

26%

Bolton scores more

43%

Bolton at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Bolton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

J. Falkingham

Harrogate Town · M

7.9

Match Events

11'

E. Doyle↳ A. Crawford

43'

J. Hickman← G. Jones

45'

Daniel Jones

56'

B. Kiernan← A. Martin

56'

N. Delfouneso↳ E. Doyle

61'

G. Thomson↳ C. Miller

69'

T. Walker← C. Miller

71'

Josh Falkingham

72'

L. Gordon← J. Mascoll

73'

Liam Gordon

75'

J. Stead← M. Beck

76'

B. Comley← A. Tutte

87'

George Thomson

90'

Jak Hickman

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HarrogateBolton

Overview

61%Possession39%

13Total Shots7

4Corners8

15Fouls6

Shots

13Total Shots7

2On Target4

10Off Target1

1Blocked2

9Inside Box5

4Outside Box2

Passing

61%Possession39%

530Total Passes333

410Accurate Passes211

77%Pass Accuracy63%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

15Fouls6

3Yellow Cards2

3Offsides1