Harrogate Town 2–2 AFC Wimbledon: Result & Stats

Harrogate Town

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

AFC Wimbledon

L. Sutton 90+7'

L. Armstrong 89'

E. Chislett 57', 32'

4/7/2023

League Two · Round 40EnviroVent Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Harrogate Town35%

×Draw28%

AFC Wimbledon37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Harrogate TownExpected goals in this matchAFC Wimbledon

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.20

Harrogate Town

1.15

AFC Wimbledon

1.20

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 138 home / 73 away

1.19

creates per match

0.93

1.47

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Harrogate Town

1.19

AFC Wimbledon

0.93

allows per match

Harrogate Town

1.47

AFC Wimbledon

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Harrogate Town+0.00on par

AFC Wimbledon+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Harrogate Town ↓

AFC Wimbledon →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Harrogate Town or draw

63%

Harrogate Town or AFC Wimbledon

72%

Draw or AFC Wimbledon

65%

Winning margin

Harrogate Town wins by 2+

14%

AFC Wimbledon wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Harrogate Town 1+ goals

68%

Harrogate Town 2+ goals

32%

Harrogate Town 3+ goals

11%

AFC Wimbledon 1+ goals

70%

AFC Wimbledon 2+ goals

34%

AFC Wimbledon 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Harrogate Town (draw refunded)

48%

AFC Wimbledon (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Harrogate Town at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.47 · 138 matches

AFC Wimbledon away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.10 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Harrogate Town attack 1.19 + AFC Wimbledon defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.15

AFC Wimbledon attack 0.93 + Harrogate Town defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Harrogate Town scores more

35%

level

28%

AFC Wimbledon scores more

37%

AFC Wimbledon at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "AFC Wimbledon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

E. Chislett

AFC Wimbledon · M

8.5

Match Events

25'

32'

41'

57'

61'

67'

W. Burrell← J. Muldoon

73'

S. Janneh← D. Jaiyesimi

74'

K. McAteer← S. Pearson

75'

Isaac Ogundere

76'

J. Currie← E. Chislett

77'

Josh Falkingham

89'

L. Armstrong↳ K. Olaigbe

90+5'

Ali Al-Hamadi

90+4'

G. Marsh← A. Little

90+7'

L. Sutton

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HarrogateAFC

Overview

54%Possession46%

11Total Shots15

6Corners5

7Fouls10

Shots

11Total Shots15

5On Target4

3Off Target3

3Blocked8

7Inside Box10

4Outside Box5

Passing

54%Possession46%

420Total Passes358

278Accurate Passes214

66%Pass Accuracy60%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

7Fouls10

2Yellow Cards3

0Offsides2