Haro Deportivo 1–2 Villegas: Result & Stats

Haro Deportivo

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Villegas

9/27/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 4Estadio Municipal Luis De La Fuente

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Haro Deportivo70%

×Draw18%

Villegas12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Haro DeportivoExpected goals in this matchVillegas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.28

0.84

Haro Deportivo

2.28

Villegas

0.84

Haro Deportivo creates 171% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 46 away

1.52

creates per match

0.57

1.12

allows per match

3.04

creates per match

Haro Deportivo

1.52

Villegas

0.57

allows per match

Haro Deportivo

1.12

Villegas

3.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Haro Deportivo+0.00on par

Villegas+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Haro Deportivo ↓

Villegas →

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1–010%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–09%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–05%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Haro Deportivo or draw

88%

Haro Deportivo or Villegas

82%

Draw or Villegas

30%

Winning margin

Haro Deportivo wins by 2+

46%

Villegas wins by 2+

Team goals

Haro Deportivo 1+ goals

90%

Haro Deportivo 2+ goals

66%

Haro Deportivo 3+ goals

39%

Villegas 1+ goals

57%

Villegas 2+ goals

21%

Villegas 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Haro Deportivo (draw refunded)

85%

Villegas (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Haro Deportivo at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.12 · 81 matches

Villegas away — creates 0.57, concedes 3.04 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Haro Deportivo attack 1.52 + Villegas defence 3.04 → ÷2 → 2.28

Villegas attack 0.57 + Haro Deportivo defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 70%?"

Haro Deportivo scores more

70%

level

18%

Villegas scores more

12%

Haro Deportivo at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Haro Deportivo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff