Haro Deportivo 1–0 Unionistas de Salamanca

Haro Deportivo

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Unionistas de Salamanca

2/2/2020

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 23Estadio Municipal El Mazo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Haro Deportivo41%

×Draw27%

Unionistas de Salamanca32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Haro DeportivoExpected goals in this matchUnionistas de Salamanca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

1.18

Haro Deportivo

1.37

Unionistas de Salamanca

1.18

Haro Deportivo creates 16% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 13 away

1.12

creates per match

1.31

1.04

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Haro Deportivo

1.12

Unionistas de Salamanca

1.31

allows per match

Haro Deportivo

1.04

Unionistas de Salamanca

1.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Haro Deportivo+0.00on par

Unionistas de Salamanca+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Haro Deportivo ↓

Unionistas de Salamanca →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Haro Deportivo or draw

68%

Haro Deportivo or Unionistas de Salamanca

73%

Draw or Unionistas de Salamanca

59%

Winning margin

Haro Deportivo wins by 2+

19%

Unionistas de Salamanca wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Haro Deportivo 1+ goals

75%

Haro Deportivo 2+ goals

40%

Haro Deportivo 3+ goals

16%

Unionistas de Salamanca 1+ goals

69%

Unionistas de Salamanca 2+ goals

33%

Unionistas de Salamanca 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Haro Deportivo (draw refunded)

56%

Unionistas de Salamanca (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Haro Deportivo at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.04 · 26 matches

Unionistas de Salamanca away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.62 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Haro Deportivo attack 1.12 + Unionistas de Salamanca defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.37

Unionistas de Salamanca attack 1.31 + Haro Deportivo defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Haro Deportivo scores more

41%

level

27%

Unionistas de Salamanca scores more

32%

Haro Deportivo at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Haro Deportivo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff