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Haro Deportivo vs UD Logroñés II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Haro Deportivo
Haro Deportivo
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
UD Logroñés II
UD Logroñés II
5/1/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 32Estadio Municipal Luis De La Fuente

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Haro Deportivo34%
×Draw27%
UD Logroñés II40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Haro Deportivo
1.20
UD Logroñés II
1.33

UD Logroñés II creates 11% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 77 away

creates per match

Haro Deportivo
1.52
UD Logroñés II
1.55

allows per match

Haro Deportivo
1.12
UD Logroñés II
0.88

finishing

Haro Deportivo+0.00on par
UD Logroñés II+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Haro Deportivo ↓

UD Logroñés II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Haro Deportivo or draw
60%
Haro Deportivo or UD Logroñés II
73%
Draw or UD Logroñés II
66%

Winning margin

Haro Deportivo wins by 2+
14%
UD Logroñés II wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Haro Deportivo 1+ goals
70%
Haro Deportivo 2+ goals
34%
Haro Deportivo 3+ goals
12%
UD Logroñés II 1+ goals
74%
UD Logroñés II 2+ goals
38%
UD Logroñés II 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Haro Deportivo (draw refunded)
46%
UD Logroñés II (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Haro Deportivo at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.12 · 81 matches

UD Logroñés II away — creates 1.55, concedes 0.88 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Haro Deportivo attack 1.52 + UD Logroñés II defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.20

UD Logroñés II attack 1.55 + Haro Deportivo defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Haro Deportivo scores more
34%
level
27%
UD Logroñés II scores more
40%

UD Logroñés II at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "UD Logroñés II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Haro Deportivo 0 – 1 UD Logroñés II

UD Logroñés II beat Haro Deportivo 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on May 1, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Luis De La Fuente in Haro.