Haro Deportivo 1–1 Tarazona: Result & Stats

Haro Deportivo

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Tarazona

Mikel Bueno 83'

David Ballarín 6'

2/14/2021

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 14Estadio Municipal El Mazo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Haro Deportivo46%

×Draw30%

Tarazona24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Haro DeportivoExpected goals in this matchTarazona

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

0.80

Haro Deportivo

1.22

Tarazona

0.80

Haro Deportivo creates 52% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 32 away

1.12

creates per match

0.56

1.04

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Haro Deportivo

1.12

Tarazona

0.56

allows per match

Haro Deportivo

1.04

Tarazona

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Haro Deportivo+0.00on par

Tarazona+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Haro Deportivo ↓

Tarazona →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Haro Deportivo or draw

76%

Haro Deportivo or Tarazona

70%

Draw or Tarazona

54%

Winning margin

Haro Deportivo wins by 2+

20%

Tarazona wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Haro Deportivo 1+ goals

70%

Haro Deportivo 2+ goals

34%

Haro Deportivo 3+ goals

12%

Tarazona 1+ goals

55%

Tarazona 2+ goals

19%

Tarazona 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Haro Deportivo (draw refunded)

65%

Tarazona (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Haro Deportivo at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.04 · 26 matches

Tarazona away — creates 0.56, concedes 1.31 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Haro Deportivo attack 1.12 + Tarazona defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.22

Tarazona attack 0.56 + Haro Deportivo defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Haro Deportivo scores more

46%

level

30%

Tarazona scores more

24%

Haro Deportivo at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Haro Deportivo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

David Ballarín

46'

Borjita García← Echaide

46'

Isaac Manjón← Gabri Lizarraga

62'

Joseba García← Héctor Martínez

62'

Josua Pérez← Jon Iru

63'

Abreu← Leo Ramírez

63'

Dani Santigosa← Iñaki Santiago

77'

Casi← Rodri

83'

Mikel Bueno

86'

A. Vidorreta

89'

V. Vesiaho← Kevin Calle

Haro

Tarazona

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: Aitor Calle

46'▲Borjita García←▼Echaide

46'▲Isaac Manjón←▼Gabri Lizarraga

62'▲Joseba García←▼Héctor Martínez

62'▲Josua Pérez←▼Jon Iru

89'▲V. Vesiaho←▼Kevin Calle

Haro Deportivo substitutes

GarcíaManjónGarcíaPérezVesiahoZarcoPeciñaBarcina

Manager: David Navarro

63'▲Abreu←▼Leo Ramírez

63'▲Dani Santigosa←▼Iñaki Santiago

77'▲Casi←▼Rodri

Tarazona substitutes

AbreuSantigosaCasiMataÁlvarezPastorCacharrónPepo

Match Recap: Haro Deportivo vs Tarazona

Haro Deportivo and Tarazona drew 1-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on February 14, 2021.

Goals: David Ballarín (6'), Mikel Bueno (83').

The match was played at Estadio Municipal El Mazo in Haro.

Haro Deportivo vs Tarazona — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Haro Deportivo vs Tarazona