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Haro Deportivo vs San Marcial — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Haro Deportivo
Haro Deportivo
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
San Marcial
San Marcial
5/3/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 33Estadio Municipal Luis De La Fuente

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Haro Deportivo49%
×Draw25%
San Marcial26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Haro Deportivo
1.64
San Marcial
1.12

Haro Deportivo creates 46% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 17 away

creates per match

Haro Deportivo
1.52
San Marcial
1.12

allows per match

Haro Deportivo
1.12
San Marcial
1.76

finishing

Haro Deportivo+0.00on par
San Marcial+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Haro Deportivo ↓

San Marcial →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Haro Deportivo or draw
74%
Haro Deportivo or San Marcial
75%
Draw or San Marcial
51%

Winning margin

Haro Deportivo wins by 2+
26%
San Marcial wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Haro Deportivo 1+ goals
81%
Haro Deportivo 2+ goals
49%
Haro Deportivo 3+ goals
23%
San Marcial 1+ goals
67%
San Marcial 2+ goals
31%
San Marcial 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Haro Deportivo (draw refunded)
65%
San Marcial (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Haro Deportivo at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.12 · 81 matches

San Marcial away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.76 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Haro Deportivo attack 1.52 + San Marcial defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.64

San Marcial attack 1.12 + Haro Deportivo defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Haro Deportivo scores more
49%
level
25%
San Marcial scores more
26%

Haro Deportivo at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Haro Deportivo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Haro Deportivo 0 – 0 San Marcial

Haro Deportivo and San Marcial drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on May 3, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Luis De La Fuente in Haro.