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Haro Deportivo vs Real Unión — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Haro Deportivo
Haro Deportivo
CANC
22:00
Real Unión
Real Unión
5/16/2020Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 38Estadio Municipal El Mazo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Haro Deportivo39%
×Draw30%
Real Unión32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Haro Deportivo
1.14
Real Unión
1.00

Haro Deportivo creates 14% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 46 away

creates per match

Haro Deportivo
1.12
Real Unión
0.96

allows per match

Haro Deportivo
1.04
Real Unión
1.15

finishing

Haro Deportivo+0.00on par
Real Unión+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Haro Deportivo ↓

Real Unión →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Haro Deportivo or draw
68%
Haro Deportivo or Real Unión
70%
Draw or Real Unión
61%

Winning margin

Haro Deportivo wins by 2+
16%
Real Unión wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Haro Deportivo 1+ goals
68%
Haro Deportivo 2+ goals
32%
Haro Deportivo 3+ goals
11%
Real Unión 1+ goals
63%
Real Unión 2+ goals
26%
Real Unión 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Haro Deportivo (draw refunded)
55%
Real Unión (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Haro Deportivo at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.04 · 26 matches

Real Unión away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.15 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Haro Deportivo attack 1.12 + Real Unión defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.14

Real Unión attack 0.96 + Haro Deportivo defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Haro Deportivo scores more
39%
level
30%
Real Unión scores more
32%

Haro Deportivo at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Haro Deportivo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Haro Deportivo face Real Unión (Primera División RFEF - Group 2)

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 returns with Haro Deportivo hosting Real Unión. Match starts May 16, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Haro Deportivo host Real Unión at Estadio Municipal El Mazo.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.