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Haro Deportivo vs Calahorra — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Haro Deportivo
Haro Deportivo
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Calahorra
Calahorra
10/18/2020Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 1Estadio Municipal El Mazo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Haro Deportivo40%
×Draw31%
Calahorra30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Haro Deportivo
1.10
Calahorra
0.91

Haro Deportivo creates 21% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 46 away

creates per match

Haro Deportivo
1.12
Calahorra
0.78

allows per match

Haro Deportivo
1.04
Calahorra
1.07

finishing

Haro Deportivo+0.00on par
Calahorra+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Haro Deportivo ↓

Calahorra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Haro Deportivo or draw
70%
Haro Deportivo or Calahorra
69%
Draw or Calahorra
60%

Winning margin

Haro Deportivo wins by 2+
16%
Calahorra wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Haro Deportivo 1+ goals
67%
Haro Deportivo 2+ goals
30%
Haro Deportivo 3+ goals
10%
Calahorra 1+ goals
60%
Calahorra 2+ goals
23%
Calahorra 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Haro Deportivo (draw refunded)
57%
Calahorra (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Haro Deportivo at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.04 · 26 matches

Calahorra away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.07 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Haro Deportivo attack 1.12 + Calahorra defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.10

Calahorra attack 0.78 + Haro Deportivo defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Haro Deportivo scores more
40%
level
31%
Calahorra scores more
30%

Haro Deportivo at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Haro Deportivo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Haro Deportivo vs Calahorra

Calahorra beat Haro Deportivo 1-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on October 18, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal El Mazo in Haro.