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Haro Deportivo vs Anguiano — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Haro Deportivo
Haro Deportivo
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Anguiano
Anguiano
4/6/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 28Estadio Municipal Luis De La Fuente

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Haro Deportivo34%
×Draw26%
Anguiano40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Haro Deportivo
1.27
Anguiano
1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 81 home / 91 away

creates per match

Haro Deportivo
1.52
Anguiano
1.66

allows per match

Haro Deportivo
1.12
Anguiano
1.01

finishing

Haro Deportivo+0.00on par
Anguiano+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Haro Deportivo ↓

Anguiano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Haro Deportivo or draw
60%
Haro Deportivo or Anguiano
74%
Draw or Anguiano
66%

Winning margin

Haro Deportivo wins by 2+
15%
Anguiano wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Haro Deportivo 1+ goals
72%
Haro Deportivo 2+ goals
36%
Haro Deportivo 3+ goals
14%
Anguiano 1+ goals
75%
Anguiano 2+ goals
40%
Anguiano 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Haro Deportivo (draw refunded)
46%
Anguiano (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Haro Deportivo at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.12 · 81 matches

Anguiano away — creates 1.66, concedes 1.01 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Haro Deportivo attack 1.52 + Anguiano defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.27

Anguiano attack 1.66 + Haro Deportivo defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Haro Deportivo scores more
34%
level
26%
Anguiano scores more
40%

Anguiano at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Anguiano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16: Haro Deportivo 0–2 Anguiano

Anguiano beat Haro Deportivo 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on April 6, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Luis De La Fuente in Haro.