Harlow Town 0–5 Colchester: Result & Stats

Harlow Town

0 – 5

HT: 0 – 2

Colchester

7/18/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Harlow Town3%

×Draw10%

Colchester87%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Harlow TownExpected goals in this matchColchester

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.41

2.92

Harlow Town

0.41

Colchester

2.92

Colchester creates 612% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 3 away

0.83

creates per match

3.00

2.83

allows per match

0.00

creates per match

Harlow Town

0.83

Colchester

3.00

allows per match

Harlow Town

2.83

Colchester

0.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Harlow Town+0.00on par

Colchester+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No68
Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Harlow Town ↓

Colchester →

0–04%

0–111%

0–216%

0–315%

0–411%

1–02%

1–14%

1–26%

1–36%

1–45%

2–00%

2–11%

2–21%

2–31%

2–41%

3–00%

3–10%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (16%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

41%59%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Harlow Town or draw

13%

Harlow Town or Colchester

90%

Draw or Colchester

97%

Winning margin

Harlow Town wins by 2+

Colchester wins by 2+

69%

Team goals

Harlow Town 1+ goals

34%

Harlow Town 2+ goals

Harlow Town 3+ goals

Colchester 1+ goals

94%

Colchester 2+ goals

78%

Colchester 3+ goals

55%

Draw no bet

Harlow Town (draw refunded)

Colchester (draw refunded)

97%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Harlow Town at home — creates 0.83, concedes 2.83 · 6 matches

Colchester away — creates 3.00, concedes 0.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Harlow Town attack 0.83 + Colchester defence 0.00 → ÷2 → 0.41

Colchester attack 3.00 + Harlow Town defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 87%?"

Harlow Town scores more

level

10%

Colchester scores more

87%

Colchester at 87% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 87% does not mean "Colchester will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff