Harkemase Boys 4–0 HSV ODIN 59: Result & Stats

Harkemase Boys

FT

4 – 0

HSV ODIN 59

9/18/2021

Derde Divisie - Saturday · Zaterdag - 5Sportpark de Bosk

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Harkemase Boys55%

×Draw21%

HSV ODIN 5925%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Harkemase BoysExpected goals in this matchHSV ODIN 59

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.18

1.41

Harkemase Boys

2.18

HSV ODIN 59

1.41

Harkemase Boys creates 55% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 46 away

1.93

creates per match

1.43

1.39

allows per match

2.43

creates per match

Harkemase Boys

1.93

HSV ODIN 59

1.43

allows per match

Harkemase Boys

1.39

HSV ODIN 59

2.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Harkemase Boys+0.00on par

HSV ODIN 59+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Harkemase Boys ↓

HSV ODIN 59 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Harkemase Boys or draw

75%

Harkemase Boys or HSV ODIN 59

79%

Draw or HSV ODIN 59

45%

Winning margin

Harkemase Boys wins by 2+

33%

HSV ODIN 59 wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Harkemase Boys 1+ goals

89%

Harkemase Boys 2+ goals

64%

Harkemase Boys 3+ goals

37%

HSV ODIN 59 1+ goals

76%

HSV ODIN 59 2+ goals

41%

HSV ODIN 59 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Harkemase Boys (draw refunded)

69%

HSV ODIN 59 (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Harkemase Boys at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.39 · 97 matches

HSV ODIN 59 away — creates 1.43, concedes 2.43 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Harkemase Boys attack 1.93 + HSV ODIN 59 defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 2.18

HSV ODIN 59 attack 1.43 + Harkemase Boys defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Harkemase Boys scores more

55%

level

21%

HSV ODIN 59 scores more

25%

Harkemase Boys at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Harkemase Boys will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff