Harjun Potku 2–3 Riverball: Result & Stats

Harjun Potku

2 – 3

Riverball

3/25/2022

Suomen Cup · 2nd RoundVehkalammenpuisto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Harjun Potku16%

×Draw15%

Riverball69%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Harjun PotkuExpected goals in this matchRiverball

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

3.33

Harjun Potku

1.63

Riverball

3.33

Riverball creates 104% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

2.25

creates per match

3.67

3.00

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Harjun Potku

2.25

Riverball

3.67

allows per match

Harjun Potku

3.00

Riverball

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Harjun Potku+0.00on par

Riverball+0.00on par

Total goals

Over86
Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes77
No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Harjun Potku ↓

Riverball →

0–01%

0–12%

0–24%

0–35%

0–44%

1–01%

1–14%

1–27%

1–37%

1–46%

2–01%

2–13%

2–25%

2–36%

2–45%

3–01%

3–12%

3–23%

3–33%

3–43%

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 78% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

96%4%2.5

86%14%3.5

71%29%4.5

53%47%

Double chance

Harjun Potku or draw

31%

Harjun Potku or Riverball

85%

Draw or Riverball

84%

Winning margin

Harjun Potku wins by 2+

Riverball wins by 2+

50%

Team goals

Harjun Potku 1+ goals

80%

Harjun Potku 2+ goals

48%

Harjun Potku 3+ goals

22%

Riverball 1+ goals

96%

Riverball 2+ goals

84%

Riverball 3+ goals

63%

Draw no bet

Harjun Potku (draw refunded)

19%

Riverball (draw refunded)

81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

73%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Harjun Potku at home — creates 2.25, concedes 3.00 · 4 matches

Riverball away — creates 3.67, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Harjun Potku attack 2.25 + Riverball defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.63

Riverball attack 3.67 + Harjun Potku defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 3.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 69%?"

Harjun Potku scores more

16%

level

15%

Riverball scores more

69%

Riverball at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Riverball will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff