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Haringey Borough W vs Bristol Rovers W — FA Women's Cup 2019

Haringey Borough W
Haringey Borough W
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Bristol Rovers W
Bristol Rovers W
10/26/2025FA Women's CupFA Women's Cup · 1st Round

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Haringey Borough W34%
×Draw20%
Bristol Rovers W46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Haringey Borough W
2.08
Bristol Rovers W
2.42

Bristol Rovers W creates 16% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

creates per match

Haringey Borough W
2.00
Bristol Rovers W
2.83

allows per match

Haringey Borough W
2.00
Bristol Rovers W
2.17

finishing

Haringey Borough W+0.00on par
Bristol Rovers W+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

80%Yes
  • Yes80
  • No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Haringey Borough W ↓

Bristol Rovers W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–27%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
65%35%4.5
46%54%

Double chance

Haringey Borough W or draw
54%
Haringey Borough W or Bristol Rovers W
80%
Draw or Bristol Rovers W
66%

Winning margin

Haringey Borough W wins by 2+
18%
Bristol Rovers W wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Haringey Borough W 1+ goals
87%
Haringey Borough W 2+ goals
61%
Haringey Borough W 3+ goals
34%
Bristol Rovers W 1+ goals
91%
Bristol Rovers W 2+ goals
69%
Bristol Rovers W 3+ goals
43%

Draw no bet

Haringey Borough W (draw refunded)
43%
Bristol Rovers W (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
74%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Haringey Borough W at home — creates 2.00, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

Bristol Rovers W away — creates 2.83, concedes 2.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Haringey Borough W attack 2.00 + Bristol Rovers W defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 2.08

Bristol Rovers W attack 2.83 + Haringey Borough W defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Haringey Borough W scores more
34%
level
20%
Bristol Rovers W scores more
46%

Bristol Rovers W at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Bristol Rovers W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Women's Cup: Haringey Borough W 0–3 Bristol Rovers W

Bristol Rovers W beat Haringey Borough W 3-0 in FA Women's Cup on October 26, 2025.