Haringey Borough 1–3 Chelmsford City

Haringey Borough

1 – 3

Chelmsford City

7/10/2021

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Haringey Borough32%

×Draw20%

Chelmsford City48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Haringey BoroughExpected goals in this matchChelmsford City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

2.27

Haringey Borough

1.83

Chelmsford City

2.27

Chelmsford City creates 24% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

2.00

creates per match

2.33

2.20

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Haringey Borough

2.00

Chelmsford City

2.33

allows per match

Haringey Borough

2.20

Chelmsford City

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Haringey Borough+0.00on par

Chelmsford City+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Haringey Borough ↓

Chelmsford City →

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–33%

0–42%

1–03%

1–17%

1–28%

1–36%

1–43%

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

58%42%4.5

38%62%

Double chance

Haringey Borough or draw

52%

Haringey Borough or Chelmsford City

80%

Draw or Chelmsford City

68%

Winning margin

Haringey Borough wins by 2+

16%

Chelmsford City wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Haringey Borough 1+ goals

84%

Haringey Borough 2+ goals

54%

Haringey Borough 3+ goals

28%

Chelmsford City 1+ goals

90%

Chelmsford City 2+ goals

66%

Chelmsford City 3+ goals

39%

Draw no bet

Haringey Borough (draw refunded)

40%

Chelmsford City (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

68%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Haringey Borough at home — creates 2.00, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

Chelmsford City away — creates 2.33, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Haringey Borough attack 2.00 + Chelmsford City defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.83

Chelmsford City attack 2.33 + Haringey Borough defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 48%?"

Haringey Borough scores more

32%

level

20%

Chelmsford City scores more

48%

Chelmsford City at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Chelmsford City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff