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Hard vs Rot-Weiß Rankweil — Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga 2019

Hard
Hard
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Rot-Weiß Rankweil
Rot-Weiß Rankweil
10/19/2024Landesliga - VorarlbergligaLandesliga - Vorarlbergliga · Vorarlberg - 11Waldstadion Hard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Hard62%
×Draw18%
Rot-Weiß Rankweil21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hard
2.71
Rot-Weiß Rankweil
1.54

Hard creates 76% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 13 away

creates per match

Hard
2.19
Rot-Weiß Rankweil
1.62

allows per match

Hard
1.47
Rot-Weiß Rankweil
3.23

finishing

Hard+0.00on par
Rot-Weiß Rankweil+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hard ↓

Rot-Weiß Rankweil →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
61%39%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

Hard or draw
79%
Hard or Rot-Weiß Rankweil
82%
Draw or Rot-Weiß Rankweil
38%

Winning margin

Hard wins by 2+
41%
Rot-Weiß Rankweil wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Hard 1+ goals
93%
Hard 2+ goals
75%
Hard 3+ goals
50%
Rot-Weiß Rankweil 1+ goals
79%
Rot-Weiß Rankweil 2+ goals
45%
Rot-Weiß Rankweil 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Hard (draw refunded)
75%
Rot-Weiß Rankweil (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hard at home — creates 2.19, concedes 1.47 · 86 matches

Rot-Weiß Rankweil away — creates 1.62, concedes 3.23 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hard attack 2.19 + Rot-Weiß Rankweil defence 3.23 → ÷2 → 2.71

Rot-Weiß Rankweil attack 1.62 + Hard defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Hard scores more
62%
level
18%
Rot-Weiß Rankweil scores more
21%

Hard at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Hard will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hard vs Rot-Weiß Rankweil

Hard beat Rot-Weiß Rankweil 3-1 in Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga on October 19, 2024.

The match was played at Waldstadion Hard in Hard am Bodensee.