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Hard vs Hittisau — Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga 2019

Hard
Hard
FT
6 – 2
Hittisau
Hittisau
8/5/2022Landesliga - VorarlbergligaLandesliga - Vorarlbergliga · Vorarlberg - 3Waldstadion Hard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Hard66%
×Draw17%
Hittisau17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hard
2.73
Hittisau
1.33

Hard creates 105% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 15 away

creates per match

Hard
2.19
Hittisau
1.20

allows per match

Hard
1.47
Hittisau
3.27

finishing

Hard+0.00on par
Hittisau+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hard ↓

Hittisau →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–16%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Hard or draw
83%
Hard or Hittisau
83%
Draw or Hittisau
34%

Winning margin

Hard wins by 2+
45%
Hittisau wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Hard 1+ goals
93%
Hard 2+ goals
75%
Hard 3+ goals
50%
Hittisau 1+ goals
74%
Hittisau 2+ goals
38%
Hittisau 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Hard (draw refunded)
80%
Hittisau (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hard at home — creates 2.19, concedes 1.47 · 86 matches

Hittisau away — creates 1.20, concedes 3.27 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hard attack 2.19 + Hittisau defence 3.27 → ÷2 → 2.73

Hittisau attack 1.20 + Hard defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Hard scores more
66%
level
17%
Hittisau scores more
17%

Hard at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Hard will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Hard 6 – 2 Hittisau

Hard beat Hittisau 6-2 in Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga on August 5, 2022.

The match was played at Waldstadion Hard in Hard am Bodensee.