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Hard vs FC Egg — Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga 2019

Hard
Hard
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
FC Egg
FC Egg
8/29/2025Landesliga - VorarlbergligaLandesliga - Vorarlbergliga · Vorarlberg - 3Waldstadion Hard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Hard41%
×Draw22%
FC Egg37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hard
1.86
FC Egg
1.78

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 86 home / 55 away

creates per match

Hard
2.19
FC Egg
2.09

allows per match

Hard
1.47
FC Egg
1.53

finishing

Hard+0.00on par
FC Egg+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hard ↓

FC Egg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Hard or draw
63%
Hard or FC Egg
78%
Draw or FC Egg
59%

Winning margin

Hard wins by 2+
22%
FC Egg wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Hard 1+ goals
84%
Hard 2+ goals
55%
Hard 3+ goals
28%
FC Egg 1+ goals
83%
FC Egg 2+ goals
53%
FC Egg 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Hard (draw refunded)
52%
FC Egg (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hard at home — creates 2.19, concedes 1.47 · 86 matches

FC Egg away — creates 2.09, concedes 1.53 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hard attack 2.19 + FC Egg defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.86

FC Egg attack 2.09 + Hard defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Hard scores more
41%
level
22%
FC Egg scores more
37%

Hard at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Hard will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Hard 0 – 2 FC Egg

FC Egg beat Hard 2-0 in Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga on August 29, 2025.

The match was played at Waldstadion Hard in Hard am Bodensee.