Harbour View vs Vere United — Premier League 2019
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 76+ matches
Harbour View49%
Vere United24%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Harbour View creates 56% more chances
Season form · 102 home / 76 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under56
- Over44
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No53
- Yes47
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Harbour View ↓
Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Harbour View at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.17 · 102 matches
Vere United away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.67 · 76 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Harbour View attack 1.28 + Vere United defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.48
Vere United attack 0.74 + Harbour View defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.95
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 49%?"
Harbour View at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 49% does not mean "Harbour View will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Waterhouse
Mount Pleasant Academy
Portmore United
Humble Lions
Tivoli Gardens
Dunbeholden
Arnett Gardens
CavalierHarbour View
Molynes United
UWIVere UnitedIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Harbour View host Vere United on Monday, 2 December 2024 at 22:00. The match is part of the Premier League 2019/2020 season.
Harbour View 0 – 0 Vere United
Harbour View and Vere United drew 0-0 in Premier League on December 2, 2024.
The match was played at Drewsland Stadium in Kingston.