Harbour View 0–3 Tivoli Gardens: Result & Stats

Harbour View

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Tivoli Gardens

12/27/2023

Premier League · Round 11Jamaica College Ashenheim Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

Harbour View40%

×Draw27%

Tivoli Gardens33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Harbour ViewExpected goals in this matchTivoli Gardens

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.21

Harbour View

1.36

Tivoli Gardens

1.21

Harbour View creates 12% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 100 away

1.28

creates per match

1.24

1.17

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Harbour View

1.28

Tivoli Gardens

1.24

allows per match

Harbour View

1.17

Tivoli Gardens

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Harbour View+0.00on par

Tivoli Gardens+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Harbour View ↓

Tivoli Gardens →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Harbour View or draw

67%

Harbour View or Tivoli Gardens

73%

Draw or Tivoli Gardens

60%

Winning margin

Harbour View wins by 2+

19%

Tivoli Gardens wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Harbour View 1+ goals

74%

Harbour View 2+ goals

39%

Harbour View 3+ goals

16%

Tivoli Gardens 1+ goals

70%

Tivoli Gardens 2+ goals

34%

Tivoli Gardens 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Harbour View (draw refunded)

55%

Tivoli Gardens (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Harbour View at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.17 · 102 matches

Tivoli Gardens away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.44 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Harbour View attack 1.28 + Tivoli Gardens defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.36

Tivoli Gardens attack 1.24 + Harbour View defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Harbour View scores more

40%

level

27%

Tivoli Gardens scores more

33%

Harbour View at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Harbour View will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff