Harbour View 3–0 Lime Hall Academy: Result & Stats

Harbour View

FT

3 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Lime Hall Academy

12/18/2023

Premier League · Round 10Stadium East

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Harbour View67%

×Draw20%

Lime Hall Academy13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Harbour ViewExpected goals in this matchLime Hall Academy

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.06

0.77

Harbour View

2.06

Lime Hall Academy

0.77

Harbour View creates 168% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 13 away

1.28

creates per match

0.38

1.17

allows per match

2.85

creates per match

Harbour View

1.28

Lime Hall Academy

0.38

allows per match

Harbour View

1.17

Lime Hall Academy

2.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Harbour View+0.00on par

Lime Hall Academy+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Harbour View ↓

Lime Hall Academy →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Harbour View or draw

87%

Harbour View or Lime Hall Academy

80%

Draw or Lime Hall Academy

33%

Winning margin

Harbour View wins by 2+

42%

Lime Hall Academy wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Harbour View 1+ goals

87%

Harbour View 2+ goals

61%

Harbour View 3+ goals

34%

Lime Hall Academy 1+ goals

54%

Lime Hall Academy 2+ goals

18%

Lime Hall Academy 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Harbour View (draw refunded)

84%

Lime Hall Academy (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Harbour View at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.17 · 102 matches

Lime Hall Academy away — creates 0.38, concedes 2.85 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Harbour View attack 1.28 + Lime Hall Academy defence 2.85 → ÷2 → 2.06

Lime Hall Academy attack 0.38 + Harbour View defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Harbour View scores more

67%

level

20%

Lime Hall Academy scores more

13%

Harbour View at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Harbour View will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff