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Harbour View vs Humble Lions — Premier League 2019

Harbour View
Harbour View
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Humble Lions
Humble Lions
1/12/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 17Harbour View Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Harbour View45%
×Draw27%
Humble Lions29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Harbour View
1.40
Humble Lions
1.06

Harbour View creates 32% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 74 away

creates per match

Harbour View
1.28
Humble Lions
0.95

allows per match

Harbour View
1.17
Humble Lions
1.51

finishing

Harbour View+0.00on par
Humble Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Harbour View ↓

Humble Lions →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Harbour View or draw
71%
Harbour View or Humble Lions
73%
Draw or Humble Lions
55%

Winning margin

Harbour View wins by 2+
21%
Humble Lions wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Harbour View 1+ goals
75%
Harbour View 2+ goals
41%
Harbour View 3+ goals
17%
Humble Lions 1+ goals
65%
Humble Lions 2+ goals
29%
Humble Lions 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Harbour View (draw refunded)
61%
Humble Lions (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Harbour View at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.17 · 102 matches

Humble Lions away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.51 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Harbour View attack 1.28 + Humble Lions defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.40

Humble Lions attack 0.95 + Harbour View defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Harbour View scores more
45%
level
27%
Humble Lions scores more
29%

Harbour View at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Harbour View will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Harbour View 1–1 Humble Lions

Harbour View and Humble Lions drew 1-1 in Premier League on January 12, 2025.

The match was played at Harbour View Stadium in Harbour View.