Harbour View 6–1 Faulkland: Result & Stats

Harbour View

FT

6 – 1

HT: 4 – 0

Faulkland

12/4/2022

Premier League · Round 4Anthony Spaulding Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Harbour View56%

×Draw24%

Faulkland20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Harbour ViewExpected goals in this matchFaulkland

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

0.90

Harbour View

1.68

Faulkland

0.90

Harbour View creates 87% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 13 away

1.28

creates per match

0.62

1.17

allows per match

2.08

creates per match

Harbour View

1.28

Faulkland

0.62

allows per match

Harbour View

1.17

Faulkland

2.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Harbour View+0.00on par

Faulkland+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Harbour View ↓

Faulkland →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Harbour View or draw

80%

Harbour View or Faulkland

76%

Draw or Faulkland

44%

Winning margin

Harbour View wins by 2+

31%

Faulkland wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Harbour View 1+ goals

81%

Harbour View 2+ goals

50%

Harbour View 3+ goals

24%

Faulkland 1+ goals

59%

Faulkland 2+ goals

23%

Faulkland 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Harbour View (draw refunded)

74%

Faulkland (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Harbour View at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.17 · 102 matches

Faulkland away — creates 0.62, concedes 2.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Harbour View attack 1.28 + Faulkland defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.68

Faulkland attack 0.62 + Harbour View defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Harbour View scores more

56%

level

24%

Faulkland scores more

20%

Harbour View at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Harbour View will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff