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Harbour View vs Dunbeholden — Premier League 2019

Harbour View
Harbour View
FT
4 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Dunbeholden
Dunbeholden
1/26/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 20Harbour View Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 101+ matches

Harbour View42%
×Draw27%
Dunbeholden31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Harbour View
1.33
Dunbeholden
1.09

Harbour View creates 22% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 101 away

creates per match

Harbour View
1.28
Dunbeholden
1.02

allows per match

Harbour View
1.17
Dunbeholden
1.37

finishing

Harbour View+0.00on par
Dunbeholden+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Harbour View ↓

Dunbeholden →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Harbour View or draw
69%
Harbour View or Dunbeholden
73%
Draw or Dunbeholden
58%

Winning margin

Harbour View wins by 2+
19%
Dunbeholden wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Harbour View 1+ goals
74%
Harbour View 2+ goals
38%
Harbour View 3+ goals
15%
Dunbeholden 1+ goals
66%
Dunbeholden 2+ goals
30%
Dunbeholden 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Harbour View (draw refunded)
58%
Dunbeholden (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Harbour View at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.17 · 102 matches

Dunbeholden away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.37 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Harbour View attack 1.28 + Dunbeholden defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.33

Dunbeholden attack 1.02 + Harbour View defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Harbour View scores more
42%
level
27%
Dunbeholden scores more
31%

Harbour View at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Harbour View will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Harbour View vs Dunbeholden

Harbour View beat Dunbeholden 4-1 in Premier League on January 26, 2025.

The match was played at Harbour View Stadium in Harbour View.